Move Over U.S., Here Comes China...

The Post-American Technology World

By Bruce Sterling June 08, 2008 | 7:25:02 AM

(((I've read enough of these Sputnik-panic engineering reports to be mighty skeptical of them... mostly because they're put together by engineering schools and their answer is always "more engineers.")))

(((But, if you assume this data isn't entirely massaged, it's quite interesting. It's bad news for American tech predominance, as American tech commentators naturally howl aloud, but China's effect on the REST of the tech world is calamitous. The original Communist Sputnik-terror champs, the Russians, don't even *exist* in this competitive world. And as for Japan, the guys who were supposed to clean America's zaibatsu Japan Inc clock 25 years ago, they're in a tailspin that makes America's look like a cakewalk.)))

(((Furthermore, none of China's neighbors seen to thrive much by China's predominance, which to me suggests some kind of instant-noodle anti-China league in the near future. Unless the likes of Malaysia and Indonesia are eager to become economic colonies.))

Link: TPAC - Technology Policy and Assessment Center at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

What's New

HTI 2007 Final Report is Released

A new study of worldwide technological competitiveness suggests China may soon rival the United States as the principal driver of the world’s economy – a position the U.S. has held since the end of World War II. If that happens, it will mark the first time in nearly a century that two nations have competed for leadership as equals.

(((Howls of pain and woe from the Yankee engineeriate:)))

http://www.manufacturingnews.com/news/08/0516/art1.html

The surge of China past the United States as the global technology powerhouse should be a "Sputnik" moment, but it isn't proving to be. For the most part, federal officials and politicians have been silent. As the economy heads into a downturn, both political parties "are jumping all over each other for the instant fix -- the tax rebate," Porter observes. " 'Problem is all solved. Congratulations!' Wow. I think long term there are things that are not amenable to that solution."

The High-Tech Indicator tells a consistent story over the past 15 years of China's authoritarian government setting its mind on achieving global technology and industrial dominance. "China's entire orientation is toward competing," says Porter. "We frown on planning and don't do much, but they have set their mind on it."

China's gains have been dramatic. The country has not stumbled once in 15 years. "There is no real sense that any kind of leveling off is occurring," says Newman. "Most industrialized countries reach a kind of equilibrium, but the study shows no interruptions in China's advance."

China is training more scientists and engineers and is generously funding their research endeavors. The United States is headed in the opposite direction. "The training of scientists and engineers has lagged, and post 9-11 immigration barriers have kept out international scholars who could help fill the gap," says the Georgia Tech indicator study.

The Georgia Tech "technology standing" measure of 33 countries is based upon four factors: national orientation toward technological competitiveness, socioeconomic infrastructure, technological infrastructure and productive capacity. Each of the indicators is based on a combination of statistical data and expert opinions.

China's ascendancy over 33 nations has "changed the world economic landscape in technology," says Porter. Its continued growth and dominance "won't leave much room for other countries."

Adds Newman: "It's like being 40 years old and playing basketball against a competitor who's only 12 years old -- but is already at your height. You are a little better right now and have more experience, but you're not going to squeeze much more performance out. The future clearly doesn't look good for the United States."

(((Unless you look at China's demographics, that is, because with that one-child policy, the Chinese are gonna get old -- like REALLY, REALLY old. Whereas the worst engineering problem the US has is that it shut off the taps of the brain-drain due to scary actions by 19 suicide pilots, then compounded its cornpone paranoia with organized Elmer Gantry anti-science stupidity.)))

(((How many engineers do you know who are rushing off to learn Mandarin?)))

(((Still, maybe China, now so puissant at nanotechnology, will surprise us all with a Chinese Singularity. Imagine all-conquering Vernor Vinge super-AIs that are Communists and speak Chinese. Wowsers.)))